By Michelle McCormick, Policy Director, Infrastructure New Zealand

Aotearoa New Zealand’s geography, weather and dramatic landscapes are a big part of what makes this such a special country to live in, but they should also remind us of the inherent vulnerability of our communities. Ranked by Lloyd’s of London as the second riskiest country in the world for natural hazards, New Zealand faces frequent tests from floods, earthquakes, storms, fires and other adverse events.

In 2024, the world breached the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold for the first time, a stark reminder of the escalating challenges posed by climate change. This milestone is not just a scientific marker; it also signals a tangible increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The devastating fires in Los Angeles, fuelled by relentlessly strong winds that destroyed entire communities and caused billions of dollars in damages, provide a sobering example of why resilience and disaster recovery planning is now a non‑negotiable for governments everywhere.

New Zealand’s fragmented approach

Despite the realities, New Zealand’s systems for resilience and disaster recovery are far from adequate. Our current approach relies on fragmented decision-making, inconsistent funding arrangements and a lack of cohesive strategy, leaving us ill‑equipped to deal with escalating risks.

Currently, local councils and communities shoulder the burden of post-disaster recovery, with limited guidance and support from central government. This decentralised and ad hoc system exacerbates inequalities, slows recovery efforts, and makes it nearly impossible to prioritise long-term adaptation planning, particularly when decision-makers are presented with a long list of pressing local needs every day.

Our fragmented approach has implications that directly affect everyday New Zealanders. For example, over the decade to 2024, the average house insurance premium in Aotearoa increased by 97 per cent, while contents insurance rose by 48 per cent – this is significantly faster than overall price inflation over the same period. This trend will only worsen unless we do more to de-risk, an aspect of which is to fund and deliver more resilient infrastructure, supported by the appropriate policy and system settings.

Learning from Queensland

What New Zealand requires is a national resilience and disaster recovery agency modelled on the highly successful Queensland Reconstruction Authority (QRA). Established after the devastating 2010–2011 floods and tropical cyclone in Queensland, the QRA provides a blueprint for managing and coordinating both climate adaptation and disaster recovery efforts.

The QRA’s success lies in its ability to standardise post‑disaster cost-sharing arrangements across various levels of government and work directly with local councils. Its expertise in setting up community-focused recovery and on-the-ground deployment of resources has transformed Queensland’s capacity to rebuild from adverse events and effectively adapt to the state’s risk profile.

The Natural Hazards Commission, established in mid 2024 out of the Earthquake Commission, currently only has a mandate to facilitate research and education, collect the levies and manage the National Hazard Fund, and arrange reinsurance. Adopting a model more similar to the QRA would bring much-needed consistency to policy and funding arrangements, as well as coordinating recovery processes, acting as a hub for expertise, and ensuring that communities have the tools and resources to adapt to changing circumstances.

Addressing the funding question

One of the most contentious issues in climate adaptation is funding. Currently, cash-strapped councils face uncertainty about their obligations, especially as they grapple with historical underinvestment in essential infrastructure and the pressure to keep a lid on rising rates bills.

A central agency could play a critical role in addressing the ‘who pays’ question by developing a climate adaptation framework that sets clear funding responsibilities across both local and central government. This could help to depoliticise resilience planning.

This agency could also establish national resilience standards and facilitate high-quality data collection to support critical planning. For example, data-driven insights could guide land-use changes, inform decisions on managed retreat, and identify vulnerabilities in infrastructure assets. Standards would ensure that critical infrastructure, such as transportation, energy systems, telecommunications and water services, are designed to withstand future disasters.

Resilient infrastructure is good economics

Investing in resilient infrastructure is not just about mitigating the impacts of disasters, it’s about safeguarding everyday financial stability for New Zealanders.

As evidenced through the sharp increase in insurance premiums, the costs of inaction are already being felt. New Zealanders’ premiums are expected to rise as a direct result of the country’s perceived disaster risk. A lot of this risk may be outside of our control; but unless we want to see insurance further impacting household budgets or becoming prohibitively expensive (a Consumer NZ survey last year showed that eight per cent of home-owners have already let their house insurance policy lapse due to high costs), then we must seek to intervene where we can.

Planning and developing resilient infrastructure within a national adaptation framework can help to mitigate these economic pressures. More efficient and resilient construction, enabled by robust policy and system settings, can reduce recovery demands and stabilise insurance costs for both private home owners, and commercial and public infrastructure providers.

Prepare now for a resilient future

New Zealand’s exposure to natural hazards is predicted to increase in the coming decades, yet the cyclones and flooding events in the North Island in 2023 and Dunedin in 2024 have already highlighted the deficiencies in our current reactive approach. We can no longer afford to hope that these are one-in-one-hundred-year events. The fact is they are not, so we must prepare for a more resilient future now.

The stakes are high. By establishing a central resilience agency, modelled on international best practices and integrating resilience into all aspects of infrastructure planning, we can protect our communities, reduce economic vulnerabilities, and ensure that New Zealand remains an affordable place in which to live and raise a family.